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Rambler's Top100 TopList

 

Библиография
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  1. Ackoff R. L. Creating the Corporate Future : Plan or Be Planned for. - New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1981.- 279.

  2. Adams L. A. Delphi Forecasting: Future Issues in Grievance Arbitration. // Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 1980, 18(2), , 151-60.

  3. Aguilar F. J. Scanning the Business Environment. - New York: MacMillan, 1967.

  4. Alm K. G., Buhler-Miko M. G., Smith K. B. A Future Creating Paradigm: A Guide to Long Range Planning for the Future. - Washington, D.C.: American Association of State Colleges and Universities, 1978.

  5. Armstrong J. S. Long-Range Forecasting. - New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1978.

  6. Astin A. W., Green K. C., Corn W. S., Maier M. J., et al.National Norms for Fall 1984. Annual. Los Angeles: UCLA/ACE. - : The American Freshman, 1984.

  7. Baier K., Rescher N. Utilities and the Future: The Impact of Technological Change on American Values. - New York: Free Press, 1969.

  8. Baker M. Strategic Long Range Planning for Universities. - Pittsburgh: Carnegie-Mellon University, 1980.- 15.

  9. Baldridge J. V., Okimi P. H. Strategic Planning in Higher Education: New Tool--Or New Gimmick? // AAHE Bulletin, 1982, 35(2):6, (October), 15-18.

  10. Blackman A. W. A Cross-Impact Model Applicable to Forecasts for Long Range Planning. // Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 1973, 5(3), , 233-242.

  11. Bolan R. S. Urban Planning and Politics. - , .

  12. Boucher W. I. Finding the Future: A Practical Guide for Perplexed Managers. // MBA Magazine, 1978, 12(7), , 48-57.

  13. Boucher W. I. Report on a Hypothetical Focused Planning Effort. // The Futures Group, 1972, , .

  14. Boucher W. I. Scenarios and Scenario-Writing. // ICS Group, 1984, , .

  15. Boucher W. I., Neufeld W. I. Projections for the U.S. Consumer Finance lndustry to the Year 2000. // Report R-7, 1981, , .

  16. Boucher W. I., Ralston A. I. Futures for the U.S. Property/Casualty Insurance Industry. // Report R-11, 1983, , .

  17. Bracker J. Educational Futures: A Reconstructionist Approach. // World Future Society Bulletin, 1977, 11, (November/December), 14-15.

  18. Buhler-Miko M. Practical Technology Forecasting Concepts and Exercises. - Austin, Texas: Industrial Management Center, 1978.

  19. Catanese A. J., Snyder J. C. Urban Planning. - : McGraw-Hill, 1988.- 386.

  20. Cetron M. J. Three Thousand Futures. // Carnegie Council on Policy Studies in Higher Education, 1980, ED183076, , 175.

  21. Chaffin W. W. Technological Forecasting: A Practical Approach. - New York: Technology Forecasting Institute, 1969.

  22. Coates J. F. Review of Sackman Report. // Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 1975, 7(2), , 193-94.

  23. Collazo A. Forecasting Future Trends in Education. // Educational Leadership, 1977, 34, (January), 298.

  24. Cornish E. The Study of the Future. - Washington, D.C.: World Future Society, 1977.

  25. Cross K. P. Two Scenarios for High Education's Future. // AAHE Bulletin, 1980, 33(l), (September), 1-16.

  26. Cyert R. M. Foreword. // In Academic Strategy: The Management Revolution in American Higher Education by George Keller, 1983, , .

  27. Cyphert F. R., Gant W. L. The Delphi Technique Case Study. // Phi Delta Kappan, 1971, 52(5), , 272-73.

  28. Dalkey N. An Experimental Study of Group Opinion: The Delphi Method. // Futures, 1969, 2(3), , .

  29. De Bono E. A Study of Technology Assessment: Report of the Committee on Public Engineering Policy, National Academy oj' Engineering. // U.S. Congress. House Committee on Science and Astronautics, 1969, , (July), .

  30. De Bono E. Future Planning and the Sense of Community in Universities. In The Administrator's Role in Effective Teaching, edited by Alan Guskin. // New Directions for Teaching and Learning, 1981, 5., , .

  31. De Bono E. Technology: Processes of Assessment and Choice: Report of the National Academy of Sciences. // U.S. Congress. House Committee on Science and Astronautics, 1969, , (July), .

  32. Dodge B. J., Clark R. E. Research on the Delphi Technique. // Educational Technology, 1977, 17, N 4, 58-60.

  33. Doyle P., Lynch J. Long Range Planning for Universities. // Long Range Planning, 1976, 9, (December), 39-46.

  34. Dror Y. Ventures in Policy Sciences. - New York: Elsevier, 1971.

  35. Edrich H. Keeping a Weather Eye on the Future. // Planning Review, 1980, 8, (January), 11-14.

  36. Enzer S. A Case Study Using Forecasting as a Decision-Making Aid. // Futures, 1970, 2(4), , 341-62.

  37. Enzer S. Beyond Bounded Solutions. // Educational Research Quarterly, 1977, 1(4), , 22-33.

  38. Enzer S. Delphi and Cross-impact Techniques: An Effective Combination for Systematic Futures Analysis. // Futures, 1971, 3(1), , 48-61.

  39. Enzer S. Exploring Long-Term Business Climates and Strategies with INTERAX. // Futures, 1981, 13(6), , 468-82.

  40. Enzer S. INTERAX-An Interactive Model for Studying Future Business Environments: Part 2. // Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 1980, 17(3), , 211-42.

  41. Enzer S. INTERAX-An Interactive Model for Studying Future Business Environments: Part 1. // Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 1980, 17(2), , 141-59.

  42. Enzer S. New Directions in Futures Methodology In Applying Methods and Techniques of Futures Research, edited by James L. Morrison, William L. Renfro, and Wayne I. Boucher. // New Directions for Institutional Research, 1983, 39, , .

  43. Eppink D. J. Futures Research: Is It Used? // Long Range Planning, 1981, 14(2), , 33-36.

  44. Fahey L., King W. R., Narayanan V. K. Environmental Scanning and Forecasting in Strategic Planning: The State of the Art. // Long Range Planning, 1981, 14(1), , 32-39.

  45. Fendt P. F. Alternative Futures for Adult and Continuing Education in North Carolina: A Delphi Futures Planning Study. // Paper presented at the first meeting of the Education Section of the World Future Society, 1978, ED162545, (October), 20 pp.

  46. Forrester J. W. Industrial Dynamics. - : Pegasus Communications, 1961.- 479.

  47. Forrester J. W. Urban Dynamics. - : Pegasus Communications, 1969.- 299.

  48. Frances C. College Enrollment Trends: Testing the Conventional Wisdom against the Facts. - Washington, D.C.: American Council on Education, 1980.

  49. Gideonse H. D. The Contribution of the Futures Perspective to Management: A Case Study. // Educational Planning, 1976, 2(3), , 21-34.

  50. Glover R. H., Holmes J. H. Assessing the External Environment. In Using Research for Strategic Planning, edited by Norman P. Uhl.. // New Directions for Institutional Research, 1983, 37, , .

  51. Gordon T. J. New Approaches to Delphi. In Technological Forecasting for Industry and Government, edited by J. R. Bright. - Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice Hall, Co., 1968.

  52. Gordon T. J. The Current Methods of Futures Research. In The Futurists, edited by Alvin Toffler. - New York: Random House, 1972.

  53. Gordon T. J., Hayward J. J. Initial Experiments with the Cross-Impact Matrix Method of Forecasting. // Futures, 1968, 6(2), , 100-16.

  54. Gordon T. J., Helmer-Hirschberg O. J. Report on a Long-Range Forecasting Study. - Santa Monica, Calif: The Rand Corporation, 1964.

  55. Hamel G., Prahalad C. K. Competing for the Future. - Boston: Harvard Business School Press, 1994.

  56. Hawken P., Ogilvy J., Schwartz P. Seven Tomorrows. - New York: Bantam, 1982.

  57. Hearn J. C., Heydinger R. B. Scanning the External Environment of a University: Objectives, Constraints, and Possibilities. // Journal of Higher Education, , (In press), .

  58. Helmer-Hirschberg O. Foreword. In The Delphi Method: Techniques and Applications, edited by H. Linstone and M. Turoff. - Reading, Mass.: Addison-Wesley Publishing Co., 1975.

  59. Helmer-Hirschberg O. Looking Forward: A Guide to Futures Research. - Beverly Hills, Calif.: Sage Publications, 1983.- 376.

  60. Henckley S. P., Yates J. R. Futurism in Education: Methodologies. - Berkeley, Calif.: McCutchiin Publishing Corp, 1974.

  61. Heydinger R. B. The Development of Institutional Research and Planning: Is Futurism the Next Step? In Applying Methods and Techniques of Futures Research, edited by James L. Morrison, William L. Renfro, and Wayne I. Boucher. // New Directions for Institutional Research, 1983, 39, , .

  62. Heydinger R. B., Zentner R. D. Multiple Scenario Analysis as a Tool for Introducing Uncertainty into the Planning Process. In Applying Methods and Techniques of Futures Research, edited by James L. Morrison, William L. Renfro, and Wayne I. Boucher. // New Directions for Institutional Research, 1983, 39, , .

  63. Hofer C. W. Research on Strategic Planning: A Survey of Past Studies and Suggestions for Future Efforts. // Journal of Business and Economics, 1976, 28, (Spring/Summer), 261-86.

  64. Huckfeldt V. A Forecast of Changes in Postsecondary Education. - Boulder, Colo.: Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, 1972.- 215 pp.

  65. Huckfeldt V., Judd R. C. Methods for Large-Scale Delphi Studies. - Boulder, Colo.: National Center for Higher Education Management Systems, 1975.

  66. Hudspeth D. R. A Long Range Planning Tool for Education: The Focus Delphi. - Syracuse: Syracuse University Research Institute, 1970.

  67. Hughes C. L. Goal Setting. - New York: AMACOM, 1965.

  68. Hutchins D. And Now, the Home-Brewed Forecast. // Fortune, 1986, , (January 20), 53-54.

  69. Jamison D., Warren J. M. Forces and Trends Affecting the Future: 1980-1990. // Paper read at the American Society for Training and Development National Conference, April 28, Anaheim, California., 1980, , .

  70. Jantsch E. Technological planning and social futures. - , 1986.

  71. Jantsch E., Jedamus P. Technological Forecasting in Perspective. - Paris: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, 1967.

  72. Jones M. V. A Technology Assessment Methodology: Some Basic Propositions. - Washington, D.C.: The MITRE Corp., 1971.

  73. Judel R. C. Delphi Applications for Decision Making. // Planning and Changing, 1972, 2(2), , 151-56.

  74. Judel R. C. Forecasting to Consensus Gathering: Delphi Grows Up to College Needs. // College and University Business, 1972, 53, (July), 35-38.

  75. Kahn H., Brown C., Martel L. The Next 200 Years. - New York: William Morrow, 1976.

  76. Kalman R. E., Busy R. C. New results in linear filtering and prediction theory. - : Trans. ASME, 1965.

  77. Kane J. A Primer for a New Cross-Impact Language--KSIM. // Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 1972, 4(2), , 129-42.

  78. Kast F. Scanning the Future Environment: Social Indicators. // California Management Review, 1980, 23, (Fall), 22-32.

  79. Kastens M. L. Long-range planning for your business : an operating manual. - New York: AMACOM, 1976.- 160.

  80. Keller G. Academic Strategy: The Management Revolution in American Higher Education. - Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1983.

  81. Kirschling W., Huckfeldt V. Projecting Alternative Futures. In Improving Academic Management, edited b Paul Jedamus and Marvin Peterson. - San Francisco: Jossey-Bass, 1980.

  82. Lindberg R. A. Long Range Planning. - New York: American Management Association, 1979.

  83. Linstone H. A. Book Review. // Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 1983, 24(2), , 178-79.

  84. Linstone H. A. Four American Futures: Reflections on the Role of Planning. // Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 1972, 4(1), , 41-60.

  85. Linstone H. A., Simmonds W. H. Futures Research: New Directions. - Reading, Mass.: Addison-Wesley Publishing Co., 1977.

  86. Linstone H. A., Turoff M. A. The Delphi Method: Techniques and Applications. - Reading, Mass.: Addison-Wesley Publishing Co., 1975.

  87. Locatis C. N., Gooler D. D. Evaluating Second-order Consequences: Technology Assessment and Education. // Review of Education Research, 1975, 45, (Spring), 327-53.

  88. Lonsdale R. C. Futures Research, Policy Research, and the Policy Sciences. // Education and Urban Society, 1975, 7(3), , 246-93.

  89. Loscalzo W. Cash flow forecasting. - New York: McGraw-Hill, 1982.- 183.

  90. MacNow G. Michigan to Study State Colleges; Some Could Shift. // Chronicle of Higher Education, 1983, 26(12), (May 18), 1.

  91. Makridakis S. G. Forecasting, Planning, and Strategy for the 21st Century. - New York: Free Press, 1990.

  92. Manchester W. The Glory and the Dream: A Narrative History of America, 1932-1972. - Boston: Little, Brown, 1974.

  93. Mandel T. F. Futures Scenarios and Their Uses in Corporate Strategy. In The Strategic Management Handbook, edited by Kenneth K. Albert. - New York: McGraw-Hill, 1983.

  94. Manley B. R., Threadgill J. A. LP Used for Valuation and Planning of New Zealand Plantation Forest. // Interfaces, 1991, 21, (November-December), 66-79.

  95. Marien M., Ziegler W. L. The Potential of Educational Futures (for the National Society for the Study of Education). - Worthington, Ohio: Charles A. Jones, 1972.

  96. Martino J. An Introduction to Technological Forecasting. - New York: Gordon & Breach, 1972.

  97. Martino J. The Precision of Delphi Estimates. // Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 1970, 1(3), , 293-99.

  98. Meadows D. H., Meadows D. L., Randers J. L., Behrens W. I., et al.The Limits to Growth: A Report for the Club Rome's Project on the Predicament of Mankind. - New York: Universe Books, 1972.

  99. Mecca T. V., Adams C. F. ED QUEST: An Environmental Scanning Process for Education Agencies. // World Future Society Bulletin, 1982, 16, (May/June), 7-12.

  100. Morrison J. L. Annotated Bibliography of Literature on Social Indicators, Future Studies, and Policy Analysis. - Alexandria, Va.: U. S. Army Research institute for the Behavioral and Social Sciences, 1980.

  101. Morrison J. L. Policy Impact Analysis: Implications for Use with Regional Data Bases on Social/Educational Indicators. In Visions, Issues, and Reality: A Changing South, edited by B. H. Willis. - Research Triangle Park, N.C.: Southeastern Regional Council for Educational Improvement, 1981.

  102. Morrison J. L., Renfro W. L., Boucher W. I. Futures Research and the Strategic Planning Process: Implications for Higher Education. - , 1984.- URL.

  103. Munger F. J., Morrison J. L. Designing a Regional Data Base for Futures Research in Educational Policy Making. // University of North Carolina Newsletter, 1981, 66(1), , 14-15.

  104. Nadelson C. Emerging Issues for College Students in the 1980s. // Journal of American College Health, 1983, 31, (February), 177-84.

  105. Nair K., Sarin R. Generating Future Scenarios: Their Use in Strategic Planning. // Long Range Planning, 1979, 12(3), , 57-61.

  106. Naisbitt J. Megatrends. - New York: Warner Books, 1982.

  107. Nanus B. QUEST--Quick Environmental Scanning Technique. // Long Range Planning, 1982, 15(2), , 39-45.

  108. Nash N. Delphi and Educational Research: A Review. - , 1978.- 55 pp.

  109. Naylor M. E. Planning for Uncertainty-The Scenario-Strategy Matrix. In The Strategic Management Handbook, edited by Kenneth K. Albert. - New York: McGraw-Hill, 1983.

  110. Ogburn W. F. Recent Social Trends in the United States. - New York: McGraw-Hill, 1933.

  111. Parekh S. B. Long Range Planning: An Institution-Wide Approach to Increasing Academic Vitality. - New Rochelle, N.Y: Change Magazine Press, 1975.

  112. Peterson M. W. Improving Academic Management. - San Francisco: Jossey-Bass, 1980.

  113. Pugh A. L. Professional DINAMO Plus Reference Manual. IBM PC computers. - 5 Lee St., Cambridge, MA: Pugh-Roberts Associates, 1986.

  114. Pyke D. L. A Practical Approach to Delphi. // Futures, 1970, 2(2), (June), 143-52.

  115. Rasp A. F. Delphi: A Strategy for Decision Implication. // Educational Planning, 1974, 1(2), , 42-47.

  116. Reeves G., Jauch L. R. Curriculum Development through Delphi. // Research in Higher Education, 1971, 8(2), , 157-68.

  117. Renfro W. L. Anticipating and Managing Change in Educational Organizations. // Educational Leadership, 1983, 41(1), , 50-54.

  118. Renfro W. L. Congress, Corporations, and Crystal Balls: A Partnership for the Future? // Planning Review, 1980, 8, (August), 36-42.

  119. Renfro W. L. Detecting Signals of Change: The Environmental Scanning Process. // The Futurist, 1984, 18(4), , 49-56.

  120. Renfro W. L. Forecasting the Impact of Public Policies. // Long Range Planning, 1980, 13, (August), 80-89.

  121. Renfro W. L. Policy Impact Analysis: A Third Generation Approach. // World Future Society Bulletin, 1980, 14(4), , 19-26.

  122. Renfro W. L. Scanning the External Environment: Organizational Issues. In Applying Methods and Techniques of Futures Research, edited by James L. Morrison, William L. Renfro, and Wayne I. Boucher. // New Directions for Institutional Research, 1983, 39, (August), .

  123. Renfro W. L. The Delphi Decision Support System: Making the Technique Work. - Washington, D.C.: Analysis Co., Inc., 1985.

  124. Renfro W. L., Morrison J. L. Merging Two Futures Concepts: Application to Educational Policy. // The Futurist, 1982, 16, (October), 54-56.

  125. Richmond B. M. STELLA: Software for Bringing System Dynamics to the Other 98%. In Proceedings of the 1985 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society: 1985 International System Dynamics Conference. - 49 Bedford Road, Lincoln, MA 01773 USA: System Dynamics Society, 1985.- 706-718.

  126. Rochberg R., Gordon T. J., Helmer-Hirschberg O. J. The Use of Cross-Impact Matrices for Forecasting and Planning. - Middletown, Conn.: Institute for the Future, 1970.

  127. Rosove P. E. An Analysis of Possible Future Roles of Educators as Derived from a Contextual Map. - Santa Monica, Calif.: System Development Corporation, 1968.

  128. Rossman M. H., Bunning R. L. Knowledge and Skills for the Adult Educator: A Delphi Study. // Adult Education, 1978, 28(3), , 139-55.

  129. Rubin L. e. The Future of Education: Perspectives on Tomorrow's Schooling. - Boston: Allyn & Bacon, 1975.

  130. Sackman H. Delphi Critique. - Lexington, Mass.: D.C. Heath, 1975.

  131. Salancik G. R. Assimilation of Aggregated Inputs into Delphi Forecasts: A Regression Analysis. // Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 1973, 5, N 3, 243-48.

  132. Salancik G. R., Wenger W. R. The Construction of Delphi Event Statements. // Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 1971, 3, N 1, 65-73.

  133. Schwartz P. The Art of the Long View : Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World. - : Doubleday, 1996.

  134. Schwartz P. The Art of the Long View. - New York: Doubleday Currency, 1991.

  135. Steiner G. A. Pitfalls in Comprehensive Long-Range Planning. - Oxford, Ohio: The Planning Executives Institute, 1972.

  136. Stubbart C. Are Environmental Scanning Units Effective? // Long Range Planning, 1982, 15, N 3, 139-45.

  137. Sullivan W. G., Claycombe W. W. Fundamentals of Forecasting. - Reston, Va.: Reston Publishing Co., 1977.

  138. Talley W. Individual Stability in Delphi Studies. // Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 1980, 16, N 1, 67-73.

  139. Teddlie C., Hackett E. R., Morrison J. L. Developing Public Educational Policy through Policy-Impact Analysis. // World Future Society Bulletin, 1982, 16, N 6, 25-30.

  140. Wagschall P. H. Judgmental Forecasting Techniques and Institutional Planning. In Applying Methods and Techniques of Futures Research, edited by James L. Morrison, William L. Renfro, and Wayne I. Boucher. // New Directions for Institutional Research, 1983, 39, (August), .

  141. Weaver W. T. The Delphi Forecasting Method. // Phi Delta Kappan, 1971, 52(5), , 267-71.

  142. Weaver W. T. The Delphi Method. - Syracuse, N.Y.: Educational Policy Research Center, 1970.

  143. Weiner N. Future Scanning for Trade Groups and Companies. // Harvard Business Review, 1976, 54, (September/October), 14.

  144. Williams C., Elmore R. F. Social Program Implementation. - New York: Academic Press, 1976.

  145. Williams P. A Linear Programming Approach to Production Scheduling. // Production and Inventory Management, 1970, 11, N 3d quarter, 39-49.

  146. Williams W., Nusberg C. Anticipating Educational Issues over the Next Two Decades: An Overview Report of Trends Analysis. - Washington, D.C.: National Center for Educational Research and Development, 1973.- 78 pp.

  147. Wissema J. G. Futures Research: Is It Useful? // Long Range Planning, 1981, 14(2), , 33-36.

  148. Wissema J. G. The Modern Prophets-How Can They Help Us? // Long Range Planning, 1982, 15(4), , 126-34.

  149. Young W. E. Determination of Educational Policy by Futures Research Methods. - , 1978.- 16 pp.

  150. Zentner R. D. Scenarios Past, Present, and Future. // Long Range Planning, 1982, 15(3), , 12-20.

  151. Ziegler W. L. An Approach to the Futures Perspective in American Education. // Educational Policy Research Center, 1970, ED046046, , 107 pp.

  152. Бендиков М. А. Динамическое моделирование развития наукоемкого отраслевого производства при перспективном и программном планировании (на примере космического машиностроения). // Автореферат диссертации на соискание ученой степени канд. экон. наук, 1992, 08.00.13, , 25.

  153. Браммер К., Зиффлинг Г. Фильтр Калмана-Бьюси /Ред. De Bono E. - Москва: Наука, 1982.- 210.

  154. Грищенко В. Н., др. Н. Теоретические основы прогнозирования и планирования. Ч. 2 /Ред. De Bono E. Н. - , 1996.- 129.

  155. Евсюхина К., Чесалова М. Работа с пакетом динамического моделирования POWERSIM (версия 2.01). - Москва: ТОРА - ИнфоЦентр, 1997.- 136.

  156. Ершов Ю. С. Экономико-математические методы анализа и прогнозирования рыночной экономики: Учеб.пособие. - Новосибирск: Новосиб.гос.акад.экономики и упр, 1998.- 186.

  157. Лопухин М. М. ПАТТЕРН - метод планирования и прогнозирования научных работ. - Москва: Сов. Радио, 1970.- 150.

  158. Ногин В. Д. Пакет Stella для моделирования исследования динамических систем // 2-я междун. конф. “Средства математического моделирования” / СПб, Россия, 14–19 июня, 1999. Тезисы. - , .- 203.

  159. Светуньков С. Г. Количественные методы прогнозирования эволюционных составляющих экономической динамики. - Ульяновск: Изд-во Ульян.гос.ун-та, 1999.- 117.

  160. Харин Ю., Малюгин В. И., Кирлица В. П., др. П., et al.Основы имитационного и статистического моделирования. Учеб. пособие для вузов /Ред. De Bono E. П. - Минск: Дизайн ПРО, 1997.- 288.

  161. Черныш Е. А., Молчанова Н. П., Новикова А. А., Салтанова Т. А., et al.Прогнозирование и планирование. Учеб. Пособие /Ред. De Bono E. А. - Москва: ПРИОР, 1999.- 172.

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